Last week, we told you Golden State had a 33% chance to win the NBA title. Those odd have increased as the playoffs go deeper and we continue to run our simulations.
Here’s what’s happening in the NBA:
Toronto Raptors (1) – Cleveland Cavaliers (4)
The Raptors are 66% favorites to win the series, but if Cleveland pulls off an upset it’s most likely to go seven games.
Boston Celtics (2) – Philadelphia 76ers (3)
The 76ers probability of winning the series is 70% and they should win it in six or even five games even though they lost the opener.
Houston Rockets (1) – Utah Jazz (5)
The Rockets won the first game and are 80% favorites to finish off the series, most likely in six games.
Golden State Warriors (2) – New Orleans Pelicans (6)
Golden State is 93% favorites to take the series. The probability of Golden State winning in six games is the most likely outcome though at 27% and 26% to do it in four.
Who will win the ring?
Golden State is the clear favorite. Top-seeded Houston is the only realistic challenger. Longshots Toronto and Philadelphia have the best shot from the East, but the safest bet is still Golden State.
Here’s each team’s probability of winning the NBA Title:
Golden State – 47.6%
Houston – 25%
Toronto – 8.9%
Philadelphia – 7.2%
Cleveland – 5.1%
Boston – 3.2%
Utah – 2.2%
New Orleans 1.1%